Your weather opportunities, delivered to Telegram.
We monitor Polymarket maximum-temperature markets for you and surface opportunities around the clock. You have all the information you need to make your own decisions.
2 free credits at signup · no card required
Confidence: High · Medium · Low
Refreshed every hour — when the market moves, we re-price for you.
On Polymarket, tomorrow's temperature isn't a lottery.
It's statistics — and we compute it for you, with 14 weather models across the Polymarket maximum-temperature markets.
Three steps, zero screen-watching
We monitor
the Polymarket maximum-temperature markets, around the clock.
14 models compute
the real probability (ECMWF, GFS, ICON, JMA…), bias-corrected.
You get your opportunities
on Telegram, refreshed every hour. You decide.
Three families of opportunities
You bet on what almost certainly won't happen.
The market sometimes underprices a near-certainty. You win often, a little at a time. The steady base.
The market has the price wrong. You take the right side.
When the Polymarket price diverges clearly from the 14 models, there's real value to capture.
Small stake, big potential payout.
The market judges a scenario near-impossible. If our models give it better odds, $1 can pay off big.
Science, not sentiment
What's in play right now
Our best-tracked cities. 2 free credits to unlock 2.
2 free credits at signup
Connect your wallet and start with 2 free credits — enough to unlock 2 cities for 24h each. No payment required.
About Polymarket Temperature Predictions
DEMFI provides independent probability forecasts for Polymarket's daily maximum temperature prediction markets. Our calculations leverage 12 numerical weather prediction (NWP) models from leading meteorological agencies worldwide — including ECMWF (Europe), GFS (USA), ICON (Germany), JMA (Japan), BOM (Australia), and more. Each city's forecast is computed from real-time ensemble data, giving you a science-based edge on climate prediction markets.
What a subscription unlocks
| Free | Subscriber | |
|---|---|---|
| See raw forecasts (V0) | ✓ | ✓ |
| Browse all 50 cities | ✓ | ✓ |
| Automatic Telegram alerts (every hour) | — | ✓ |
| Safe Bets · Edge · Longshots | — | ✓ |
| Bias-corrected forecasts (V1 Markov) | — | ✓ |
| Confidence levels + verification page | — | ✓ |
| Portfolio (all opportunities combined) | — | ✓ |
2 free credits to try · no card
Connect your wallet, get your first 2 opportunities free.
No card. You decide if it's worth it.