Tomorrow's temperature to a tenth of a degree, and the probability of every bucket.
13 forecast models, debiased and recombined by our engine. For every city: the forecast plume, the full Tmax and Tmin distribution, and the probability of each Polymarket bucket. You read the forecast; you decide.
One plan, all 48 cities · no card required
On the day itself, updated every hour as observations come in.
Tomorrow's temperature isn't a lottery. It's a probability.
We compute it every day for 48 cities and every Polymarket bucket — Tmax and Tmin, with the uncertainty spelled out.
From 13 models to one honest probability
We collect
13 forecast models (ECMWF, GFS, ICON, JMA…) and the observations, every hour.
Our engine recombines
each model is debiased on its recent errors and weighted by its accuracy, then turned into a full distribution.
You read the forecast
plume, Tmax and Tmin distribution, bucket probabilities — updated every hour on the day itself. You decide.
Science, not sentiment
Out-of-sample test, 50 cities, Sept.–Oct. 2026.
Today's forecasts
48 cities. One plan unlocks them all.
About our temperature forecasts
DEMFI forecasts the daily maximum and minimum temperature of every city with a Polymarket temperature market. Our engine recombines 13 forecast models from leading meteorological centres — ECMWF (Europe), GFS (USA), ICON (Germany), JMA (Japan), GEM (Canada), UKMO and Météo-France — each debiased on its recent errors and weighted by its accuracy. The result is a full Tmax and Tmin distribution and the probability of every market bucket, updated every hour on the day itself as observations come in.
What a subscription unlocks
| Free | Subscriber | |
|---|---|---|
| Browse all 48 cities | ✓ | ✓ |
| Plumes of the 13 forecast models | — | ✓ |
| Tmax and Tmin distribution, to the tenth | — | ✓ |
| Probability of every Polymarket bucket | — | ✓ |
| Same-day forecast updated every hour | — | ✓ |
Pay in USDC or $DEMFI · no card · cancel anytime
Check our forecasts against tomorrow's observations. Then decide.
One monthly plan covers every city. No card. You decide if it's worth it.