DEMFI Demo

Before choosing a city, check which ones have the highest forecast confidence. This matrix shows our model's reliability for each city and forecast horizon (D+1 to D+5). Focus on cities marked HIGH (dark green) — that's where DEMFI's statistical edge is strongest. Houston is highlighted as the demo city.

DEMFI aggregates hourly temperature forecasts from 14 numerical weather prediction (NWP) models (ECMWF, GFS, ICON, JMA, and more). Each line is one model's forecast trajectory; ensemble models also show their spread (p10–p90). The black line is actual observations. **V0 (raw) is free for any connected wallet.** V1 applies DEMFI's Markov bias correction and requires a paid access (1 credit for 24h on this city, or a monthly plan).

Using all forecast models, DEMFI computes the probability that tomorrow's maximum temperature falls in each bucket. The tallest bar is the most likely outcome. **V0 is free.** V1 (bias-corrected) requires a paid access (1 credit for 24h on this city, or a monthly plan).

Edge Finder compares DEMFI's V1 probabilities against live Polymarket prices for each bucket. When DEMFI sees a higher probability than the market implies, there is a BUY YES edge; when the market overprices an outcome, a BUY NO edge. Position sizes use the Kelly Criterion (quarter-Kelly, capped at 25%). **Requires paid access** (1 credit for 24h or a monthly plan).

Long Shots identify buckets priced at 2 cents or less by Polymarket but where DEMFI estimates 12%+ probability. High-risk, high-reward: $1 bet can return $50+ if the bucket hits. **Requires paid access** (1 credit for 24h or a monthly plan).

Safe Bets identify buckets where DEMFI estimates a 90%+ probability that the outcome will NOT occur. Buying NO shares at a discount collects a small but high-probability return — the bond-like positions in your weather portfolio. **Requires paid access** (1 credit for 24h or a monthly plan).

The Portfolio consolidates all recommended positions (Edge, Long Shots, Safe Bets) into a single Kelly-sized view. On the live platform, XLS export downloads your full multi-city portfolio. **Requires paid access** (1 credit for 24h or a monthly plan).