Reproducing our approach is within your reach, starting today. You need two things — and we give you one of them: our signals, published continuously. The other is the discipline to act on them.
This series walked through the why (this isn't a roulette), the four strategies, then the results in full transparency. This installment is the most concrete: the how-to. Five moves, in order — and the same playbook is available as a PDF at demfi.io/en/track-record.
1. Read the signal
Not all streams are equal. The priority order we follow ourselves: Safebets (High and Medium confidence) form the solid base; Edge YES (High and Medium) adds the return; Edge NO (High only) stays selective; Longshot is optional — its net result hovers around zero, your call. That's the menu detailed in Four strategies, one process.
2. Diversify
This is the backbone. Every city with at least Medium confidence is equal — none is "better". Prefer breadth over depth: many small positions across dozens of cities beat a few large ones. Diversity is what makes the daily result steady — not the one bet that stands out.
3. Receive the signal
Two ways, depending on your style.
Automatically, the All-cities plans (1, 7 or 30 days) push the opportunity list every hour: city, confidence tier, strategy, and the exact Polymarket interval. Each opportunity is already pre-filtered for you (confidence, minimum edge, liquidity, entry-price floor, observed max) — and you also receive the exits when the forecast diverges.
Manually, the Portfolio positions page gives you the book at a glance; city by city, the Portfolio section gives the per-horizon summaries. And for the purists, the model plumes and probability distributions, model by model — the same data that feeds our engine.
4. Size with discipline
Alerts express size on a base of 100 — a Kelly percentage. Multiply by the bankroll you choose for each strategy. What matters isn't the absolute amount, but the ratios: a Safebet is sized larger than an Edge, a "super-safe" conviction larger than a "safe" one. The safety margin is built in the sizing, never in the conviction.
5. Mind the slippage
This is the one move alerts can't make for you, because it depends on your size. On Polymarket, buying pushes the price up: too large, and the expected margin evaporates as you walk the order book. Always check the average execution price before you send. Low-liquidity cities and low-volume positions hard-cap what you can deploy — be very attentive. Our own bots scale the size down in a cascade until the margin survives the fill, or don't enter at all. Do the same.
The book, not the bet
Put end to end, these five moves don't chase the right bet of the day — they build a book: diversified, pre-filtered, sized, cleanly executed. That's exactly what produces the track record we publish.
It's all at demfi.io/en/track-record — including the "how to replicate" PDF, right on the page. Connect your wallet at demfi.io/en: you get 2 credits on your first connection (1 credit = one city for one day). Follow a few cities, receive the alerts, and place your first book.
Good analysis,
— JP